IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Supply Forecast by 3.9 mb/d Amid Hormuz Crisis

(MENAFN) Global oil supply shed another 1.8 million barrels per day in April, dropping to 95.1 mb/d and bringing cumulative losses since February to 12.8 mb/d, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced Wednesday.

"Output from Gulf countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels," the IEA stated.

Rising production and exports from the Atlantic Basin are offering partial relief, the agency noted. Should Strait of Hormuz flows begin recovering gradually from June, the IEA still projects global oil supply will average a 3.9 mb/d decline throughout 2026, settling at 102.2 mb/d.

On the demand front, the IEA forecasts world oil consumption will shrink by 420,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, reaching 104 mb/d — a figure already 1.3 mb/d below the agency's pre-war baseline projections.

The sharpest contraction is expected during the second quarter of 2026, with demand projected to fall 2.45 mb/d. Within that figure, OECD economies will account for 930,000 barrels per day of the decline, while non-OECD nations will absorb the heavier share at 1.5 mb/d.

Petrochemical and aviation industries remain the hardest-hit sectors to date. Yet the IEA warned that surging prices, a weakening global economy, and government-led demand reduction measures are set to increasingly erode fuel consumption across a broader range of industries

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